Implications of uncertainty in flood hazard assessments for planning under climate change

PhD student:
Clevon Ash (GRI – UoC)

Supervisors:
Matthew Wilson (GRI – UoC)
Iain White (UoW)
Carolynne Hultquist (SEE – UoC)

Funding:
MBIE Endeavour Research Programme – Increasing flood resilience across Aotearoa, New Zealand.

Duration of Project
2023-2026

Summary:
Like many other countries around the world, New Zealand experienced numerous floods between 2022 and 2023. In 2022, Aotearoa experienced over 600 million dollars in losses; however, in 2023 this figure skyrocketed to over 3.5 billion dollars with the passage of Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary weekend floods. According to the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) who uses complex flood models to predict how flooding is going to change over the next few decades, these figures are likely to increase based on climate projections. The aim of this research is to develop a better understanding of uncertainty representation in flood risk management and to determine the impact that it has on decision making. As the uncertainty associated with flood risk grows due to climate change and other factors it becomes imperative that decision makers can make the decisions needed within acceptable margins of error to protect the people of Aotearoa and its assets.

Outputs:
Ash, C. Using RiskScape to measure the Impact of Flood Uncertainty on Decision-Making. The Fourth Spatial Data Science Symposium. UoC, Christchurch, September 5, 2023. Poster.



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Nationally Consistent Flood Hazard and Risk Information for Aotearoa

This talk will report on results from a 5-year MBIE-funded Endeavour Programme, Mā te Haumaru o te Wai on the development of a semi-automated workflow to consistently model flood hazard and risk over all of Aotearoa for current and future climates, and show results from this work that are being made available on our flood hazard and risk  viewing platform to help ensure there is consistent information available.

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